This week’s NFL trap of the week is one that would make rodent capturer d-CON proud. The Dallas Cowboys (1-1) bring one of the most potent rushing attacks into St. Louis to play a Rams (1-1) team that is poorer at stopping the run than a ‘free beer’ sign at a tavern right next to a 5K registration table. Dallas is coming off an impressive road win in Tennessee while the Rams had a tough time sneaking by one of, if not the, worst team in football in a 19-17 win in Tampa Bay. On top of that Dallas defeated the Rams with ease last year 31-7. So what is this week’s line – Dallas -5.5? Dallas -7.5? Nope the Cowboys by a measly 1 point and it hasn’t budged since.
To say that Demarco Murray likes running against the Rams is like saying free beer at a tavern is a decent deal. Last season Murray carried the ball 26 times for 175 yards against them and it wasn’t even his best performance against the team. That came in 2011 when Murray toted the rock 25 times for a Dallas record 253 yards. The 4th year back leads the NFL in rushing with 285 yards on 51 carries and his balance has helped keep the pressure off Tony Romo and the passing game, which is either shaking off rust from minimal preseason work or just bad. Even the much maligned Dallas defense is playing well ranking in the top half of the league in opponent rushing yards, passing yards, and points allowed.
So far in their 2014 season the Rams have been clobbered by Minnesota 34-6 and have won a FG marathon over Tampa Bay 19-17. They had some guy named Austin Davis playing QB and their breakout WR candidate Tavon Austin has gone down with a knee injury. The Rams have the 3rd worst rushing defense in the league and plays their next 7 games after the Cowboys tilt against teams with double-digits in wins last season. That being said, it’s always sunny in St. Louis and if the Rams can somehow beat Dallas, they’ll find themselves in a tie for the division lead depending on the results of the Arizona/San Francisco matchup.
The line of Dallas -1 is one of the more evident examples of a trap that’s been posted in recent years. Everything suggests the Cowboys will run the ball at will and when the Rams stack the box to stop that the vaunted Cowboys passing offense will free up leading to big yardage for Dez Bryant, Jason Witten, and Terrance Williams. In all actuality the line could be Cowboys -7.5 and it wouldn’t feel bad to take them, why on Earth is the number only Dallas -1 then? Sometimes you simply have to go against what you think you know will happen, and trust what the oddsmakers are telling you the result will be…
Pick: St. Louis -1 (Bookmaker.eu)