A narrow Rockies’ win in game one followed up by a Cardinal hit parade last night has the series at 1-1 with two left at Coors Field. On paper, Wednesday night’s game appears to be the best pitching matchup of the series with Adam Wainwright opposing Tyler Chatwood. The Cardinals are definitive favorites priced right around -150 with a total opening at a flat 9.0.
I’ve been very comfortable backing or fading Adam Wainwright for just about most of the season at this point. With the exception of that one bump in the road a few weeks ago when he gave up 15 combined runs in consecutive outings against the Cincinnati Reds, Wainwright has been consistently awesome this year. And he has exercised any potential demons since that brutal two-outing stretch to end August and begin September. In his last two starts Adam Wainwright has been his normal self – surrendering eight hits and just one earned run in 15 innings against the Pirates and Mariners. Neither offense is particularly powerful but neither is this Colorado team sans Carlos Gonzalez. And Troy Tulowitzki has yet to figure Wainwright out in his career (1-11). The Cardinals were able to jump on Colorado early and often last night go give the majority of their major bullpen arms the night off. I look for Wainwright to bring his lunch pale tonight, shut down the Rockies for seven innings or so and then hand the ball over to Trevor Rosenthal and Edward Mujica to finish the job.
Tyler Chatwood will have the tough task of quieting a Cardinals’ lineup that exploded for another 10 run game last night, which has been a reoccurring theme for this club throughout the year. Chatwood has been a bit unusual this season. He has some pretty good stuff, actually but his command can be very sporadic at times. That said, he has proven very effective when he gets himself in a jam. His WHIP is a less-than-desirable 1.48 but his 3.20 ERA doesn’t reflect the same message his WHIP is saying. Luck or an ability to bear down. Chatwood has one of them, or possibly a combination of the two. Chatwood was horrendous in his last start, which makes me a little concerned but I’m banking on getting good Chatwood tonight at home. If you look at his game logs you’ll see that Chatwood has potential to get lit up every once and a while but the vast majority of his starts are quality ones. He has the stuff to stymy this Cardinals team for an outing but the command must be there.
I really don’t see this game going as high as the oddsmakers give it credit for. Obviously, this is pretty contingent on Chatwood but I feel pretty comfortable backing a young kid with a 3.20 ERA and plus stuff to just pitch serviceably. The under is the play here. Team totals are not open right now but I advise a play on Rockies under even down to a 3.5. I expect 4’s to be available, though.
Free Pick: St. Louis/Colorado Under 9 (-105)
2013 MLB: 25-16-3 +9.83