We opened things up with a Game 1 winner when Alex Gordon got heroic on us and pushed it over with his game-tying dinger. Each side has reason to think it’s tossing its ace in Game 2. But does either actually believe it? DeGrom and Cueto have combined to form a total of 7.5. And we’re back in line for more over action.
The difference between 7.0 and 7.5 is larger than most half-run hikes. Seven flat proves enticing when you have two sides that project to score evenly. Three runs for either side means and over 7.0 bet is free-rolling, while an over 7.5 finds itself in some trouble. It would have been really nice to get a 7.0 here but I won’t pass on the chance to get another over ticket before the totals start seeing 8’s and 9’s.
I actually lean Royals again tonight, which makes them a nice play at plus money. But I prefer the over because I’m comfortable fading Jacob DeGrom. His manager acknowledged this week that his fastball has lost some of its late life down in the zone and I take his word for it. The kid has had a heck of a year but he’s thrown a whole bunch of innings and I’m skeptical that his season ends on a high, even with the extra rest. Plus the Royals just seem good for at least four runs just about every time out these days.
But they may need five if Johnny Cueto throws like he’s back in the National League. The man who was brought over in July to anchor the starting rotation has simply been part of the mix down the stretch and through the postseason. He was awesome in that Game 5 win over Houston but two rough starts sandwiched that one. My hunch is that Cueto may actually be ok tonight but I’m not willing to completely ignore the recent track record and what the Mets’ offense has done lately.
The bullpen fatigue will be overblown like it always is, but it’s only another factor that could be in our favor. Again, I love having the DH in this spot and believe that another over here will permanently lock that total over 8.0 for the rest of the series. With this being the tenth play of the month, it’s a do-or-die to finish in the black all the way from Uganda. Until next year, folks. Cheers.
Free Pick: Over 7.5 +105
YTD: 30-25-5 +0.09
2014: 45-28-3 +9.02