It’s been quite a month of August. And after starting things with an 0-4 mark, I’m here before my last play of the month with a chance to turn a profit with my 10th play. At worst the .500 August mark is locked up, which became my updated goal when the 0-4 stretch hit. But we’re rolling along with five straight winners and I don’t think there’s any reason it can’t be six with this play out in the Bay Area. The San Francisco Giants host the Milwaukee Brewers in a matchup between two teams clinging to postseason berths heading into the last month of the season.
The Giants have won three straight games to keep pace with the flurry of challengers in the National League Wild Card. San Fran holds that last playoff spot with a 71-62 record and also sits just half a game behind St. Louis for the Wild Card lead, which would earn it a home game to play its way into the NLDS round. Ryan Vogelsong makes his 27th start of the year – and sixth of August. This month has been good to Vogelsong. He’s surrendered just nine earned runs in those five outings and has lowered his ERA from 4.10 coming into the month, to just 3.78 now. Somewhat unusual, is that he’s also given up a home run in each of those starts. So he’s shown a weakness giving up the long ball, but also an ability to pitch well despite giving one up. He also gets his second crack at the Brewers in August after throwing six innings of one-run ball at Miller Park on the 6th. If he continues to throw consistent ball to keep his team in the game, that should be plenty tonight.
I started the season very bullish on Wily Peralta. But I knew that his success would only last for so long as such a high level. And after a great start, Peralta has slowly regressed to about where you would expect his numbers to end. His ERA on May 14 was an astounding 2.05 and has gradually risen to the 3.56 mark it is now. Peralta also comes off his second-worst start of the season earlier this week when he gave up seven runs in just five innings against the Pirates. He gave up three home runs of his own too.
Though both of these pitchers actually find themselves in a pretty good spot in a spacious outfield, I do think the total is a bit too low (7.0). That said, I like Vogelsong as the surer bet to throw a quality start in a spot where Peralta very well may struggle again (how much gas does he have left in the tank?). It doesn’t hurt the Giants are at home and on a winning streak, either. I’d also play the over for small, but take San Fran in this spot as the more sizable play.
Free Pick: San Francisco (-108)
YTD: 33-23-2 +5.31