Subriel Matias vs Dalton Smith Betting Odds and Prediction

By Boxing

Subriel Matias vs Dalton Smith Preview Jan. 10th, 2026

Current WBC Junior Welterweight Boss and former IBF Junior Welterweight Champion Subriel Matias of Puerto Rico defends his belt against unbeaten Dalton Smith of Sheffield, England this Saturday, January 10th. The 12-rounder from Brooklyn, New York can be seen live in most nations on PPV.com. Smith last boxed in April when he beat Mathieu Germain via a 12-round unanimous decision to defend his WBC Silver Title. Matias last saw action in July when he took the WBC Title from Albert Puello by majority decision. Matias won the vacant IBF Title in February, 2023 when he stopped Jeremias Ponce of Argentina after the fifth round of a slugfest and then defended it against Shohjahon Ergashev by stopping him after the sixth round. However he lost the belt to Liam Paro in June, 2024 when he dropped a unanimous decision at home in Puerto Rico. He then bounced back with a second-round TKO over Roberto Ramirez and an eighth-round TKO over Gabriel Valenzuela before taking Puello’s Belt.

Matias vs Smith Betting Odds

Here are the betting odds from online sportsbook BetOnline.ag (full review here).

  • Dalton Smith -139
  • Subriel Matias -180

My Pick

The 33-year-old Matias climbs into the ring with an impressive record of 23-2 with 22 wins coming by KO, which means 95.7 per cent of his wins have come by stoppage. The only time he went the distance for a victory was in his last outing against Puello. He’s boxed 130 rounds since turning pro in 2015 following his amateur career and stands 5-feet-8-inches tall with a 71-inch reach. The first pro defeat on Matias’ record came at the hands of Petros Ananyan in 2020 via a close 10-round unanimous decision after Matias was dropped in the seventh round.

He avenged that defeat two years later by stopping Ananyan in the ninth round. Matias’ biggest wins have been against Puello, Valenzuela, Roberto Ramirez, Shohjahon Ergashev, Jeremias Ponce, Patrick Lopez, Adrian Estrella, Breidis Prescott, Fernando Saucedo, Wilberth Lopez, Maxim Dadashev, Malik Hawkins and Batyrzhan Jukembayev. Sadly, Dadashev passed away at the age of 28 after sustaining injuries in the bout with Matias. He’s a dangerous boxer who simply lets his hands go until his opponent is usually counted out or quits. However he took Liam Paro too lightly in June, 2024 and paid for it with his title when dropping a unanimous decision.

Smith is 28 years old and makes the ring walk with a perfect mark of 18-0 with 13 Ko’s and has boxed 111 rounds since making his pro debut in 2019. As an amateur, he won the 2018 ABA Championships as a junior welterweight, captured a silver medal at the 2014 European Youth Championships and a bronze at the 2015 Commonwealth Youth Games as a lightweight. He also fought at the 2013 World Junior Championships and reached the quarter-finals of the 2014 World Youth Championships. Smith also competed for the World Series of Boxing from 2016 to 2018 for the British Lionhearts.

As a pro, Smith also won the vacant British Junior Welterweight Title in 2021 when he stopped Lee Appleyard in the sixth round. He added the vacant WBA Inter-Continental Junior Welterweight Belt the same year by beating Brian Pelaez by 10-round unanimous decision and took the vacant WBC International Silver Junior Welterweight Belt in 2022 when he stopped Ray Moylette in the 10th and final round. He won the vacant British Title again in 2022 by halting Sam O’Maison in the sixth round.

Smith measures just under 5-feet-10-inches tall with a reported reach of 69.5 inches so he’s 1.5-inches taller than Matias but gives up 1.5-inches in reach. As far as power is concerned, he also has plenty of it as 72.2 per cent of his wins have been by stoppage, but he has been forced to go the distance in three of his last six fights. Even though he’s a solid pro with good skills and power, Smith took a big step up in class last in year 2024 when he stopped Jose Zepeda with a wicked body shot in the fifth round for the vacant WBC Silver Title. He added the vacant European belt in his next outing when he stopped Walid Ouizza in the first round.

Prediction…

Matias didn’t take Paro seriously in 2024 as he wasted half his energy on his ring walk and dancing in the ring before the fight. He appeared to have learned his lesson though by stopping Roberto Ramirez and Gabriel Valenzuela and then taking the title from Albert Puello. At his best, Matias has an extremely high work rate but isn’t the hardest target to hit and has been dropped before. However, Matias typically overwhelms his opponents from the start to finish of most rounds and has the power to turn a fight around with a single punch. Smith is five years younger with power of his own and a solid chin but I don’t know if he’ll be able to keep Matias at bay for 12 rounds if the champion decides to let his hands fly. This is a good matchup and both boxers should have their moments but I think Matias keeps the belt thanks to his volume punching, athleticism and power. However it may go the distance.

Matias’ has power and volume punching in his side.

Play: Matias -180 @ BetOnline.ag

Check out my recent boxing betting picks to see my current form.


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