Clay Buchholz was bad again in his last start against the Blue Jays. Unfortunately, he wasn’t quite bad enough to cash the over in a game that ended in a push against the total. Buchholz walked 3 and gave up 7 hits in just over 6 innings, but a couple of key double play balls kept him out of any big trouble. The Sox got a win too behind a couple of home run balls out of Mike Napoli and Pablo Sandoval. That same strong Boston offense takes the field in Seattle behind the curious Buchholz. This time with a much lower total to exceed.
So JA Happ has finally looked the part of the highly touted prospect that made him the centerpiece of more than one big trade around Major League Baseball. Happ’s allowed two runs or less in all but one of his starts this season pitching in the friendly confines of Safeco Field and his 4:1 strikeout to walk ratio even suggests the numbers he’s putting up might not just be a product of pitching in a better environment. The lefty has been great in the control department (just 8 walks), but he’s still surrendering about a hit every four at-bats against and I just have a tough time seeing him shut down the Boston lineup. The Sox are equipped to really knock lefties around so don’t expect Happ’s run of two-or-less to continue, though it could.
That’s why Buchholz is ultimately the ace in the hole for us playing an over. And that’s not the type of ace Red Sox fans have always wished Buchholz could become. The Mariners’ offense doesn’t scare anyone these days, but neither does anyone in Boston’s rotation, especially the guy going on Friday night. Book the over in this one, even with the heavier price. We have to love the flat 7.0 between two sides that could each score some runs.
Free Pick: Over 7 -125
YTD: 3-1-1 +1.98
2014: 45-28-3 +9.02