World Cup Winner Odds and Pick at Start of Knockout Stage

By Soccer

The group stage has been completed and half of the 32 teams that started the 2014 World Cup have been eliminated.  The remaining 16 teams now enter a single elimination bracket where 4 wins will earn a nation the biggest sports title in the World!  The winner odds have changed dramatically from the beginning of the tournament based on many factors.  First of all the fact that a team has not yet been eliminated definitely should help their odds to win the tournament.  We have also got to see each team play 3 important games and can come to some conclusions about their form and their new chances of lifting the World Cup.  And third of all we now see their road to the World Cup.  Certain teams seem to have a more difficult road than others, but we can’t forget that each of these 16 teams qualified for the knockout stage so nobody can be taken lightly.  Here is how the bracket looks now:

World Cup Bracket

World Cup Winner Odds after Group Stage

Here are the outright winner odds after the group stage.  I’ve taken the odds from because they generally offer the best futures lines online:

  • Brazil +315
  • Argentina +430
  • Germany +450
  • Netherlands +830
  • France +890
  • Colombia +1975
  • Belgium +2275
  • Mexico +3450
  • Chile +3650
  • Uruguay +5350
  • Costa Rica +5850
  • USA +9250
  • Greece +13750
  • Switzerland +14750
  • Nigeria +26750
  • Algeria +41500

The big three of Brazil, Argentina and Germany are still the 3 favourites to win the tournament.  Spain was the fourth of the big four before the tournament began, but they were unable to advance out of Group B.

After that the Dutch, who look like they have a fairly good draw, and France are the next two contenders.  After them the odds jump significantly to Colombia and Belgium, Mexico and Chile.

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My Picks

First of all I’m going to eliminate every team with longer odds than Chile.  I don’t think Uruguay without Luis Suarez will be able to win four games against top quality teams.

Costa Rica has performed great, but you still have to think they are overachieving slightly.  They have a good round of 16 draw against Greece, but after that they will be underdogs the rest of the way.  The remaining teams are all up against strong teams out of the gate and just simply don’t have the quality to go all the way in this tournament.

I’m also eliminating Brazil at odd of +315.  Of all of the top teams they have the most difficult road to the World Cup Finals.  Chile will be a very difficult game, followed by another big contest against Colombia or Uruguay.  If they do manage to get out of their quarter they will still need to win two more games against the highest quality of opponents.  I haven’t seen the signs that they will be able to impose their will against stronger competition, which is why I would stay away from this bet.

The Netherlands at +830 is a bet I do like.  They are in the weakest quarter and if they defeat Mexico, who they are favourites against, they will play against either Costa Rica or Greece who they will be even bigger favourites against.  So there is a very good chance that the Dutch will make the semi-finals.  Once there anything is possible.  With players like Robben and van Persie providing the offense this team could beat anyone.  For this reason I like them at +830.

I also like Belgium at +2275.  I don’t think we’ve seen the best from Belgium yet at this World Cup.  Heading into the tournament they actually had shorter odds than this so it’s funny that their odds have lengthened even though they’ve won every game they’ve played and now have drawn the United States in the round of 16 in a match they will be big favourites.  Argentina has looked strong, but they’ve also been susceptible to goals against.  They’ve allowed 3 goals against now and they don’t look fully organized at the back so I don’t think it’s too ridiculous to think Belgium could advance and then anything is possible.

The other long shot bet I like is Chile at +3650.  I think they have a good chance to beat Brazil and if they do this their odds will plummet.  They were in a very difficult group and showed they have the class to play with the best in the world.  I could see Chile surprising some people and going deep.  They also started the tournament with odds close to what they have now, which is another reason I think they are a good bet.

My Picks: Holland +830, Belgium +2275 and Chile +3650.

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I’m staying away from the big favourites.  I don’t think the difference between the teams chances is as much as the odds indicate.

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