OK, this article we are going to skip the usual observations and opinions and focus on picks. Those articles will continue next week. I think it is important to look at last week’s picks and results. We have to talk about the elephant in the room. We went 1-4 and lowered our record to 5-5. I’m now down 200 bucks. I hope you bet less than I do and you would be down less. Either way, we aren’t in a huge hole. Last week, two of our losses were a direct result of the replacement officials. They didn’t influence the games, they decided them, just like most of the games. We should have been 3-2, but we weren’t Does that piss me off?? Yes. Is there anything we can do to change it?? No. So we suck it up, stay confident and go forward. I promise I will make last week up to you. Just not all at once.
Now the regular officials are back, but it will take them a while to get in game form. Still, I doubt they they will determine the winner in 75% of the games like the replacements. That means we have a better chance handicapping the games and winning money. We will build a bankroll and be steady. Hopefully it goes quick, sometimes it doesn’t. Just follow me and try to forget last week. So let the winning begin. I suggest betting the same amount on each game on a given week. You can change the amount from week to week, just bet the same for that given week. Don’t go 3-2 and lose money because you had a game you bet more on. There is no sure thing.
Week 4 picks. All picks are risking 550 to win 500.
New England/Buffalo UNDER 50.5 pts from 5Dimes.eu. Big number for a divisional game. Most see a shootout, but that amount of points is a bit much. New England lost a lead last week because their defense couldn’t hold it. I imagine that Mr. Belechek was not pleased by that. This week’s focus was all defense oriented. Their offense is pretty well set.
Buffalo is 2-1 and has beaten KC and the Browns. Hardly impressive. I see this as a game the NE defense can make amends for last week. I also believe that the Bill’s D can slow down the Pats. Mario Williams and company are quick. If they can not give up the big play, NE might move the ball and score, but chew up time doing so. Too many points for me. Take the under.
Seattle/ST. Louis UNDER 39 pts from 5Dimes.eu. Seattle coming off emotional win. Their defense is still capable holding down the Rams who only scored on Washington and Detroit, then laid an egg in Chicago.
They will be better with Fisher, but it will take time to score on good defenses. The Rams D is OK and Seattle has an anemic offence who runs the ball to win. that chews up time. I can’t see a shootout here. We will play the under.
Washington/Tampa Bay UNDER 47.5 pts from 5Dimes.eu. ANOTHER under!!!!!! I will explain this trend after my picks. Washington has scored a lot of points, and given up a lot. Not this week. Tampa Bay has a very good defense. The Redskins are due to cool off and the Bucs will help them do that. Washington can’t stop anyone, but Tampa Bay has a horrific offense. Freeman is playing terrible and Shiano is not a shootout guy. I see two poor teams playing a close low scoring game. RG3 can’t be superman every week. I see this number as being way too high. Once again, we hit the under.
Miami/Arizona UNDER 39 pts from 5Dimes.eu. One last time. Arizona has a stifling defense. I can’t see Miami and Tannenhill scoring a lot here. Also, Bush is an unknown at this point. Arizona is also not a shootout team. Their offense can’t be good week to week with their QB. Also, Miami has a very formidable defense. I see this game as very physical and a field position battle. If big plays can be avoided, I can’t see many points being scored. Tap the under one more time.
Chicago Bears +3.5 pts from Bovada.lv. I watched Dallas beat Tampa Bay last week. The game set football back 50 yrs. The Cowboys are terrible. They tried to let the Bucs win, but the Bucs were not able to take it. Dallas has no offense, defense or coaches. They think they are going somewhere at 2-1. What a joke. Now the Bears come to town on Monday Night. The Bears have some issues, but are still a real football team. Cutler should shred the horrible Dallas secondary. Tony Romo, the human turnover machine, will give away the ball to a good Bears defense. I can’t believe the Bears are getting points. Take the Bears.
So why all the unders???? The refs are going to stop a lot of the nonsense that leads to high scoring games. The players also know they have to watch themselves and play fundamentally better. I believe the totals have been set too high because of replacement ref syndrome. Now, I see games being more organized and less chaotic which I believe means less points.
So let’s start over and make a profit this week no matter how much it is. One step at a time. Good Luck and God Bless. Matt
Edit: 3 More Picks Added Sunday Morning
Washington +3 pts from Bookmaker.eu.
Shannahan must win vs. Shiano the cheerleader. I’ll take Shannahan every time. Tampa had good D, but no offense. The Redskins can score enough to win or cover because TB has no offense. I look for coaching and QB matchups. Washington has huge advantage in both areas. Take the skins.
Denver -6.5 pts from 5Dimes.eu. This will be Denver’s breakout party. Oakland sky high after Pittsburgh win and Bronco’s focused after Houston loss. Must win game for Broncos against rival at home. This is the game Denver puts it together for first time. Manning wants win bad and will run it up at home. Bronco’s roll. Take Denver.
New Orleans +9 pts from Bovada.lv. The Saints made it clear they are not packing it in after terrible start. GB is overrated and hasn’t looked good all year. What better way for NO to start their comeback????
GB games have been low scoring, So the points look nice. Despite them being mad about the Seattle debacle, they aren’t that good to give those points to anyone. Take the Saints.
Written by: Matthew Caldwell
Matt Caldwell • NFL picks • Week 4