New England Patriots Control Denver Broncos
Written by Greg Smith – 2011-12 NFL Prediction Record (16-9-1)
This weekend features another quality NFL betting opportunity as the Denver Broncos look to continue their fairytale year and defeat the New England Patriots at home. We’ll go through some key statistics and central storylines between both teams for this matchup as we prepare to make the most educated NFL wager possible.
First, the Denver Broncos shocked a lot of NFL fans as they defeated the Pittsburgh Steelers in their last matchup. QB Tim Tebow has been one of the main stories for the Broncos as they continue to stun some of the most powerful NFL teams in the league. So far this season QB Tebow has passed for 2045 yards, 14 TD’s to 6INT’s at a 46.5 % passing rate and with an overall QBR of 77.5. I would argue that in the case of Tebow his overall QBR is much more of an important factor than his passing rate or total yards since he plays the quarterback position beyond some of the more conventional statistics. The Denver team is 7-9 ATS to date in total but has an impressive 6-2 ATS record when they are the visiting squad. Offensively, the Broncos currently rank 23rd in total yards gained, 31st in passing yards gained per game, 1st in rushing yards gained per game and 25th in total points scored per game. Denver has some impressive victories so far this season but they also have some troubling losses (including to the Patriots 23-41 less than a month ago). Looking at the defensive side of the Broncos they currently rank 20th in fewest total yards allowed per game, 18th in fewest passing yards allowed, 22nd in fewest rushing yards and 24th in least total points allowed per game. The Broncos also look reasonably healthy going into this matchup as only S Brian Dawkins, FB Spencer Larsen and WR Eric Decker are listed as questionable. One of the more troubling facts for the Broncos is that they have a -0.7 turnover ratio for the year, with -1.7 over their last three games and a -0.2 average for the year when they play as the visiting team. These unimpressive turnover statistics combined with the comparison of general offense and defense lead me to think the New England Patriots are the wise side for NFL bettors in this game.
Overall the Patriots stand a mediocre 4-4 ATS at home to date while QB Tom Brady has passed for 5239 yards so far this season, for 39 TD’s to 12 INT’s at a passing rate of 65.6% and an overall QBR of 105.6. As we would expect, the rest of the Patriots offense largely mirrors the success of Brady as they currently rank 2nd in total yards gained per game, 2nd in passing yards gained per game, 20th in rushing yards gained per game and are 3rd in total points scored per game. However, the Patriots defense has not fared nearly as well as they currently rank 31st in total yards allowed per game, 31st in passing yards allowed per game, 17thin rushing yards allowed and 15th in total points allowed per game. Obviously the secret to the Patriots success (it’s not a secret) is to allow the offense to torch the opposition while the defense basically hangs in as much as possible. I do really like the Patriots turnover statistics, however as they are at +1.1 for the year average, +2.7 over their last three games and +1.0 over the year playing at home. Those numbers tell us that the Patriots do a better job than the Broncos of holding on to the football and with their high powered offense it should give them a strong chance at taking down the Broncos. I know the Broncos have been far above expectations this season but I believe the Patriots are simply too much team and do a much better job at controlling turnovers.
Prediction: Take the New England Patriots and give the 13.5 points against the Denver Broncos this weekend (5Dimes.com)
Check out the past NFL predictions to see how I’ve fared throughout the season…
Denver Broncos betting • New England Patriots betting • NFL Playoff betting