The unders keep pouring in after a third straight under winner today in the San Diego and Cincinnati matinee. I’m seeing them well and the record keeps improving, now 10 games over .500 just 22 plays into 2014. Typically, April and May are the best months to bet baseball because many unknown commodities are often still undervalued in the marketplace. It won’t be long before oddsmakers have just about all of it figured out and lines tighten heading into June and July. That means there’s still time to take advantage and I think we’ve got another value play out in California tomorrow night in a series between the Rays and the Angels. The fans out West will be treated to a fantastic pitching matchup between a bonafide ace and an aspiring one. Jered Weaver takes the ball for the home side against young Chris Archer for Tampa Bay. Weaver has the deserved edge on the game price with a total fluctuating between 8.0 and 8.5.
While still relatively unknown as a personality at least, Chris Archer is one of the most interesting young men in baseball today. And in addition to aspiring to become an ace, Archer has expressed interest in doing something in the psychology field after his playing days. It’s not hard to believe if you watch him pitch. Archer uses an extremely cerebral approach, in addition to being a tremendous young man, who was recently named a young ambassador to the game of baseball. His mild manner both on and off the field makes him one of the more mentally strong pitchers in the game at just 25 years of age. And his stuff matches what’s in between his ears. Archer features one of the best fastball/changeup combinations in baseball. And he will become an ace once he masters a breaking ball. But despite his great potential, he isn’t an ace yet. Archer has allowed 24 runs in his last six starts and hasn’t thrown a real great game since his mid-April start against the Yankees. Regardless, I still believe he has to be valued as an upper-echelon starter in this league and tomorrow’s total does not reflect as much.
There’s no debating Jered Weaver is a stud. You can’t bank on Tampa Bay pushing across more than three tomorrow, especially the way their offense has produced thus far, which means there’s incredible wiggle room for Archer to even be just so-so on the road out West. I’m not convinced the kid is an ace yet. But the chance to win with anything less than nine total runs between him and one of the better pitchers in baseball is a green light all the way. And the unders have been kind to us all lately. All aboard.
Free Pick: Under 8.5 (-110)
2014 YTD: 16-6 +8.74