Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red Sox September 22 Free Pick


A little sputter right here at the end of September leaves the fate of our 2015 regular season in one final game. For two years we’ve churned out pretty nice profits betting Major League Baseball regular season but a full season in Africa has proven a challenge. One game determines which side of break-even we finish on. Why not pick on Matt Moore one last time?

Free Pick

The question might not be totally rhetorical though. We picked on poor Matty two starts ago when he got lit up in Fenway. But he actually looked like the 2013 version of himself the very last time out, when we stayed away in Baltimore. Moore spun a two-hitter over seven innings but couldn’t get a win in a game Tampa managed to lose 4-3. Moore is back in Fenway on Tuesday night and I’m willing to bet my season that his dominance in Baltimore will prove to be short-lived. The Sox continue to hit and play as well as a playoff team over these final two sblmonths of the season and they should give Moore more than he can handle at this point in his career. Even with seven shutout innings his last time out, his ERA is still over 7.00 with a WHIP of 1.66. And with Henry Owens going on the other side, it’s tough to imagine he’s good enough tonight to get a win.

As Boston fans look ahead to next year, Rick Porcello’s strong ending to 2015 is encouraging, right along with the emergence of the former first-round pick Henry Owens. Five of the lefty’s eight career Major League starts have resulted in a run or less allowed. He gave up three runs over five innings in his debut and got shelled in the other two. But those two disaster outings feel long ago and far removed from the rookie’s memory. Owens tossed 5.1 three-hit innings in a win over the Blue Jays two starts ago and then shutout Baltimore over 7.2 (everyone’s doing it) last time. As far as divisional opponents go, Tampa Bay’s lineup should be the easiest test for Owens who appears strong as he crosses the finish line.

I expect Owens to be good, Moore to be bad and the Red Sox to win this one at home.

Free Pick: Red Sox -135

YTD: 25-20-5 +0.29

2014: 45-28-3 +9.02