San Diego Padres vs. Colorado Rockies September 18 Free Pick


Last time’s write-up was just about incorrect in every place possible: Dallas Keuchel was not the reliable party in the starting pitching matchup; the under did not, in fact, hit; and it wasn’t even the series finale between the Astros and Rangers. Fortunately it was just the second loss this month but we’re still looking for (at least) one more win to secure the winning month. We may just have our spot Friday night out in the Rocky Mountains.

Free Pick

The constant paper analysis has seemed to draw me out to Coors Field often. And the games typically feature two starting pitchers that you’d rather not risk your life with an under on. I’m not sure how our record in these type of games has gone this year but I’m willing to take a shot at losing one more of ‘em.sbl

Ian Kennedy will be our Keuchel tonight. Not in the sense of getting lit up in a two-inning outing, but hopefully this time he’s the starter we can rely on to toss something close to a quality start. He’s been a bit roughed up over his last two, including four earned in five innings to the Rockies two outings ago in Petco. But before that he was on an impressive run of consecutive quality starts. Those last two starts pushed his ERA over 4.00 and you have to think his personal mission for the rest of this season is trying to find a way to put a 3 in front of that number. He’s pitched really well against the Rocks in two other starts this year and I like our chances for him to shake off his recent performances and toss six good innings for us at Coors.

Chad Bettis is the Perez – I really should stop with this comparision – because of his potential to outpitch his rather low Vegas expectations. In his first close-to-full season, Bettis has put up mid-4 ERA and mid-1 WHIP numbers but he’s sliced more than a third of a run off that ERA figure over his last six starts alone. One of those games included a quality start at Petco. It won’t be as easy going against San Diego in his own ballpark, but Bettis doesn’t have to be great. Neither side’s pitching does, really, with a meaty 11.0 total.

I think we can keep this one under, but just barely. And that means we’re only in for half this time around.

Free Pick: Under 11 -120

YTD: 25-19-4 +1.49

2014: 45-28-3 +9.02