An 0-4 month of August has dropped my 2014 MLB gain back down to basically nil. I’m sitting about a third of a unit above the break-even point with another five or six weeks of regular season baseball left. That’s certainly disappointing, but not necessarily surprising. I talked about the real sort of vanishing of value as you enter July with MLB. Winning betting baseball is not too difficult if you know the game very well, but it requires a ton of work, a lot of watching and a dedicated grind to shop for the best number. The good thing is that I’m not down at this point in the season and chasing back losses. Staying cool should still see this season through as a winner.
The Boston Red Sox stay at home to take on another American League West opponent. But this is not the Houston Astros. The newly first place Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim come to town, and CJ Wilson will start game one. Wilson has been very, sort of average this season. He has just a 4.71 ERA with a WHIP of 1.40, which aren’t what we’ve come to expect from CJ Wilson based on his recent track record. Wilson’s numbers are actually very similar to what he did last year, in terms of strikeouts and walks. But his home run numbers are way up this year. He’s giving up an extra 0.5 home runs per nine innings and his HR/FB rate has nearly doubled.
He will pitch at Fenway Park, where his three-year splits aren’t favorable (8.10 ERA and .348 opponents batting average), but this Red Sox team is not like last year’s version, or even 2012’s. Boston doesn’t really hit home runs this year, which has to do with the young core of players that is now a regular chunk of the Red Sox lineup. In this spot against a team that has struggled to hit for power, I like Wilson’s chances to put together a good six, seven inning start against a bunch of young players.
Meanwhile, Brandon Workman will probably pitch just slightly worse. Workman is really about as predictable of a starting pitcher around. He will go four or five innings and give up a few runs. He’s rarely awful (well, a little more this season), but will never shut a team down completely. If Wilson throws well, which I obviously think he will, I look for Workman to stay with him for a while and compete. That’s what he does best. I’m going to take the under in a spot where many will likely fade and think it goes way high at Fenway.
Free Pick: Under 9.5 (-120)
YTD: 28-23-2 +0.31