Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres July 30 Free Pick


The Padres slowed down the streaking Red Legs on Monday night. Now former Padres ace and current Red Mat Latos comes to Petco looking to put a stop to Cincinnati’s losing ways and gain ground in the NL Central amidst a five-game series between top two teams St. Louis and Pittsburgh. The Reds open as -150 road favorites with a total of 7.5.

Free Pick

The Reds’ bats have been very quiet with just three runs total in Cincy’s last four games. Edinson Volquez should be a nice remedy for one of Mat LatosMajor League Baseball’s most potent offenses. Volquez has posted some nice career numbers against members of the Cincinnati ball club but they’re a bit deceiving. A small sample size without many go’s at any of the Reds’ sluggers isn’t enough to scare me away here. Volquez had some pretty dynamic stuff but it seems long since gone. Coincidentally enough you may remember Volquez became highly touted as a member of the Rangers where he was dealt to the Reds in exchange for Josh Hamilton. Several injuries and arm problems later, Volquez has been a bit of a punching bag around the league this year where he has had to eat up innings for San Diego en route to a WHIP of 1.60 and an ERA of 5.70.

His counterpart, Mat Latos, also faces his former team. Latos broke onto the scene in 2010 with San Diego when he posted career-bests in ERA (2.92) and WHIP (1.08). Latos comes into Petco throwing the ball well all season and has good career numbers against members of the Padres despite the sample size being small like Volquez’s. Latos should be able to dominate San Diego with powerful stuff that will overpower many of the light-hitting Padres.

Cincinnati appears to be a slam dunk to get back on track and score some runs tonight. With their ace on the hill against his former team a play on the Cincinnati run-line could be sharp as it’s going off at +105. I do like the run-line but I prefer to take the Reds -1 to avoid a backdoor cover or a close one run win. Giving the run eliminates the steep juice and covers the close Cincinnati win. If your book doesn’t offer -1 lines you can stake a play on the moneyline and then risk whatever the win amount is on the run-line. Calculate a price from there using the risk and win amounts. In the case of -150 moneyline and +105 run-line, a -1 line equates to a -119 play. Cover yourself by giving the one instead without the extra hook. Cincinnati trucks the Padres.

Free Pick:  Cincinnati -1 (-119)

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