The Reds continue to truck through their heavy divisional schedule as they travel from Wrigley Field over to Miller Park to take on the Brewers. Really good pitching matchup in this one with young Tony Cingrani opposing the veteran Kyle Lohse. The Reds open as small-ish road favorites with a total holding steady at 7.5.
Tony Cingrani has rounded out the Reds’ rotation to make it arguably the deepest and best one through five in the Bigs. Cingrani joins Bronson Arroyo, Mat Latos, Homer Bailey and Mike Leake to make up a super rotation that doesn’t contain a single arm with a WHIP over 1.24.
Cingrani has been straight nasty on hitters as far as batting average against goes. The southpaw has allowed just 59 hits in over 87 innings pitched, which comes out to about a .192 opponents batting average. He has committed 37 walks, including 26 in his last 44 innings pitched. If walks are Cingrani’s achilles heel, the Brewers pose as his dream matchup. The free-swinging Brew Crew rank dead last in Major League Baseball in team walks. Many of Milwaukee’s best offensive players are overly aggressive including Jean Segura and Carlos Gomez. Both record hits at a very high rate but the degree of difficulty of Cingrani’s stuff could slow that pace considerably for one game. Pitching away from Great American Ballpark shouldn’t be an issue for Cingrani. The youngster has comparable splits and actually is a little nastier on opponents away from home. The Brewers have also never seen Cingrani. They should be in for a rather unpleasant surprise.
On the other side of the field, Kyle Lohse takes the ball for Milwaukee looking to continue his stellar season in his first season after signing a big contract with the Brewers this off-season. Lohse has posted an impressive 1.14 WHIP with an ERA just over 3.20. Lohse has been the lone rock in Milwaukee’s starting rotation – at least when it’s compared with Cincinnati’s. Lohse has had success against Cincinnati this season – posting a 2.84 ERA in 12.2 innings pitched. He’s been a familiar foe in the NL Central as a former member of the St. Louis Cardinals and current Brewer. As opposed to the Brewers with Cingrani, the Reds know what they are getting with Lohse. It doesn’t mean anything will come easy for Cincinnati that has struggled to meet offensive expectations this season – especially as of late.
This game should be close throughout and it should be low-scoring. I look at the total of 7.5 and feel pretty good that the hook is a bit generous. I have this total at a flat 7.0 so there is some value with the under. I don’t see either side exploding and there certainly is potential for either pitcher to limit a side to just one or two runs. With two pretty good bullpens involved, the full game total is the play here. Maybe for slightly smaller with a little less value than normal but value nonetheless.
Free Pick: Cincinnati/Milwaukee Under 7.5