The Reds will look for a welcomed sweep of the Arizona Diamondbacks Sunday. And after wins from Mike Leake and Johnny Cueto, Cincinnati has its emerging third ace on the mound Sunday to finish the job. Alfredo Simon takes the ball for the road side against wily Wade Miley and the Diamondbacks. The two should duel in a pretty good game between two teams that each need a win.
The total for this game depends on where you are betting. And shopping for the best number in this instance makes all the difference, in my opinion. A total of 8.0 is a fairly solid number – one where I would lean on the under without a play. But 8.5 does appear available, and if you have it at your disposal I recommend playing it.
Alfredo Simon is coming off the poorest start of his spectacular season against the Dodgers when he gave up five runs in just 3.2 innings. The Dodgers are a great offensive club, but Simon’s four walks should come as a bit of a concern. In his four starts leading up to that, he had allowed just three free passes, and he will need to get back to that type of command in order to keep this game under. Against a lineup where he only really needs to be super cautious against one hitter, I expect Simon to get back to pounding the strike zone with his best pitch – the fastball. Simon still has just a 1.10 WHIP this season and an ERA under 3.00. Going up against Arizona, I would be pretty surprised to see him leave the game any earlier than the sixth. And I’m looking for seven.
And I honestly expect the same from Wade Miley. We rode him in his last start against San Diego and he got us the under. And my explanation here isn’t much different. He simply pumps out quality starts and he’ll get another one Sunday against the Reds. Miley does an excellent job deceiving hitters by changing speeds and arm slots. And Cincinnati doesn’t have a whole lot going for it offensively. Pitching at home in the spacious Chase Field, look for Miley to give Arizona at least six quality innings in preserving a successful under bet. If you can get 8.5 take it with confidence.
Free Pick: Under 8.5 (-125)
YTD: 19-14 +2.88