I’m going to make hay while the grass is green here. I like Cleveland’s chances to complete the sweep as a road dog. And I’m definitely not alone in feeling the same way about those Cubbies tonight either.
Vegas must make San Fran the favorite tonight with Madison Bumgarner going at home, but I think the Giants are dead. I also don’t think I’m alone thinking that either, which takes away some of what would make Bumgarner such a tough guy to beat in this spot. No one thinks San Fran has much of a shot at taking the Cubs in three straight and they’re all right to feel that way. That realization that the ship is going down has to have at least started to burrow itself inside the minds of the Giant players’ minds. Chicago is too good. But we’ll see how stubborn MadBum can be about these things.
Just getting Chicago as a dog today seems like an ok deal to me, but we also get Jake Arrieta on our side. I know he’s only about the Cub’s sixth best pitcher but he’s both talented and tested enough to go pitch-for-pitch with Bumgarner and just can’t be sold short in this spot. But he is, fetching a pretty good payout at +120 and I think it warrants at least a small play.
But I’m just trying to get back right now and am not willing to give back our regular season winnings on an uninformed hunch, even if I’ve only lost three times since late July. If you still think I’ve got a little heat behind these picks and want to roll, I recommend the two dogs and feel pretty good at least one closes things out.
YTD: 36-24-1 +5.75
2015: 31-25-5 +1.09
2014: 45-28-3 +9.02