Diamondbacks @ Padres April 19 Free Pick

April 19, 2017 Posted in MLB by No Comments

Errors tipped the total over in our last play, last week in the Rays and Yankees game. That drops the write-ups to 1-2-1 midway through April and I’ve got some late night west coast action for us tonight to get back to .500. The Diamondbacks pay a visit to the Padres, looking for a fourth straight win.

Free Pick

Zack Greinke

It’s a funny line tonight in San Diego. Arizona has been playing as well as any team in the National League 15 games into the season (10-5) and everybody knows how bad the Padres are. The -120 price on the Snakes sure seems like a reflection on Zack Greinke, like the brains in Vegas are trying to let everybody know that he is no longer an ace.

That notion is tough for me to accept. Since Pedro Martinez was regularly putting up ERA+ seasons of 200 or more in the early 2000s, Greinke has been the only guy to post such a season. And he did it twice, a 205 in 2009 when he won the Cy Young with Kansas City  and a 222 in 2015 when he lost out on the award to Jake Arrieta.

But last year’s numbers don’t lie; and while the 4.32 ERA might not tell the whole story of this season yet, it hasn’t given anybody a reason to think he will ever get back to that Cy Young form. That said, two of his three starts have been good ones so far this year.

The thing is, if Vegas sees Greinke like that you wonder why the total is only 7.5, and juiced on the under to boot. There certainly isn’t much to expect out of Jhoulys Chacin, who was rocked in Los Angeles on Opening Day and then hit hard in Atlanta his last time out. He mixed in a good start against the Giants in between but he hasn’t shown anything this year, nor at any other time in the last five years to expect anything shutdown. Something doesn’t quite add up here.

The two angles are the Diamondbacks as a -120 road favorite or the over 7.5 at even money. Arizona scored 11 last night and got the chance to play Hit the Shorstop when Erick Aybar took the mound in garbage time. Otherwise, it’s been a lot of close, low-scoring wins for the Dbacks in the early part of the season. I haven’t trusted the San Diego offense since Ken Caminiti was shooting needles in his ass so I’ll take the roadies.

Free Pick: Diamondbacks (-120)

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Evan Petty

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Handicapper out of the North Shore, MA.

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